Anthropogenic Factor: Main Driver of Hot Weather Extremes

Dr. Shobhana Singh-Assistant Professor.

Anthropogenic Factor: Main Driver of Hot Weather Extremes

“We are the first generation to feel the impact of climate change and the last to be able to do anything about it.”   - Barack Obama, 2014.

This present blog is an attempt to discuss how anthropogenic factors have expedite the advent of extreme weather climate conditions on earth, with the special reference to the report of IPCC, an international body which releases it’s report on climate change.  There is a new emerging trend nowadays, not to have children because people are afraid of doing so, as they think it will amplify global warming while others are concerned about extreme weather events their children may have to endure and the deadly effects of this rapid climate change.

“Having a child is 7-times worse for the climate in CO2 emissions annually than the next 10 most discussed mitigates that individuals can do,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said.

Now we are facing more frequent and intense droughts, heat waves in a region like Canada, rising sea levels due to which countries like The Bahamas facing a threat to be submerged in water, melting Arctic sea ice, permafrost thawning, warming oceans, cloud burst incidents like in Himachal Pradesh, coastal erosion, weaken monsoon etc. These events can directly harm the life of humans and animals, destroy their places they live and havoc on our livelihoods. But have we ever tried to know why we are facing such phenomenon more frequently? Now we should understand that these are no more natural disasters but rather have become “natural- human disasters” due to exceed anthropogenic activities like constant emission of greenhouse gases, carbon emission, deforestation,  increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols, over use of hazardous chemicals, pesticides, insecticides, weedicides etc. in agriculture, deep mining, disrupting marine life  and many more. We can understand how human finger prints are affecting all over the world, with the help of image below.

                                      

 

                                             

 IPCC   

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. It’s main Objective is to provide  information related  to climate change due to human activities and what are the natural, political, and economic impacts and risks, and possible response options. This body was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and currently it is comprised of 195 countries. This body has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007for its outstanding work on climate. Since 1990, IPCC has released 5 reports related to climate change, and recently it has released it’s first report from the Sixth Assessment Report (ARG) on 6 August, 2021, which will be completed in 2022.Due to the effort of IPCC, many international climate meeting have been held like Paris Climate Agreement ( COP 21) in 2015 and Kyoto Protocol ( COP 03) in 1997, which were about to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius and reduction of green house gases respectively. But according to the latest IPCC report both targets will be broken this century unless huge cuts in carbon take place. It is mentioned in the report that global surface temperature was 1.09C higher in the decade between 2011-2020 than 1850-1900, past five years have been the hottest since 1850, sea level rise has nearly tripled in last few decades, human influences is very "very likely" (90%) the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea-ice, hot extremes including heat waves have become more frequent and more intense since the 1950s, while cold events have become less frequent and less severe. Now the Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC will provide invaluable input on climate negotiations for next COP 26 in Glasgow.

 Now we should understand that there is an urgency of taking immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. While the benefits from such reduction would come quickly for air quality, it could take 20-30 years to see global temperatures stabilize, and many phenomena – such as sea level rising- maybe be irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years. Ultimately, the report gives us hope that human actions still can determine the future course of climate, especially by cutting emissions down to net zero. We might not have “Another Chance” and “Planet B” but still there is a narrow path to avoid such climate catastrophe that we might face in future.